The jobs numbers for April and other economic data thus suggest a continuing slowdown of the US economy has begun in the current second quarter of 2012. That decline will likely continue further in the months immediately ahead, to possibly as low as 1.5% the second quarter, April-June 2012.
The hot air trial balloon floated by the press and pundits this past winter – that the US economy was finally, after a third try in as many years, about to take off on a sustained growth path in 2012 – is thus once again about to deflate. The US economy remains mired in the stop-go trajectory that has characterized it since early 2009: short shallow rebounds punctuated by brief relapses and slowdowns – a condition and prediction this writer raised nearly three years ago with the publication of the work, Epic Recession, and reiterated last November with a latest work, Obama’s Economy: Recovery for the Few, just published this April.
Following a forensic analysis of the problems with Obama’s economic policies Rasmus speculates on his future:
As a consequence, Obama may be headed toward a repeat of the ‘Jimmy Carter Effect’. Carter failed to resolve another major economic crisis in the 1970s. He too turned toward corporate support and policies after 1978. Corporate America took his handouts, turned on him, and dumped him in 1980. Reagan did not ‘win’ the election; Carter lost it. Should GDP and economic recovery continue to falter in 2012, Obama may well end up repeating history. If so, however, he will have lost not in 2012, but in policies introduced (and not introduced) in 2010 – when he made a deeper turn toward corporate influence instead of turning to extend the bailout and recovery to Main St.
Visit Jack Rasmus: Predicting the Global Economic Crisis to read the article in full.
Recovery for the Few
Informed critical economist takes Obama to task for presiding over a failing and unequal US economy.
“Everybody else talked of the Lehman crisis as a blip, but Rasmus got it right: his concept of ‘epic recession’ describes what happened, in America and in the Western world. In this trenchant critique of Obama’s stimulus measures, he asks searching questions about the scale of the actions taken and the suitability of their design. With orthodox economics coming under strain, Rasmus’ unorthodox economics is a refreshing counter-argument to the mainstream.” – Paul Mason, BBC Newsnight Economics Editor and author of Meltdown
“Obama was elected because he represented hope and the expectation of change. But as Rasmus shows, little changed for tens of millions of unemployed, homeowners, and those dependant on government services. Rasmus describes in detail how Obama was the most conservative and business-oriented of the Democratic candidates in 2008, and how his first-term economic policies reflected that orientation.” – Chuck Mack, International Vice-President, International Brotherhood of Teamsters Union
Prelude to Global Depression
A fresh perspective on the economic crisis that argues that we are experiencing a recession on an unprecedented scale
“Extensive research, thoughtful analysis and articulate writing have created a great book. Jack Rasmus doesn’t just talk about the economic catastrophe of the last two years he identifies the problems, the root causes, and offers sound and insightful solutions. Epic Recesssion should be required reading for anyone who has a responsibility in formulating public policy.” – Chuck Mack, International Vice-President, International Brotherhood of Teamsters